Get ready for hotter temperatures in South Carolina this summer, as conditions for a certain weather pattern are starting to develop.

Scientists are gearing up for El Niño to emerge in the coming weeks, which can make big changes to the Palmetto State’s weather, impacting everything from temperature and rain to even hurricane activity.

Notably, there’s a growing chance that the climate event will become ‘super’, intensifying its effects across the world.

Here’s everything SC folks should know about El Niño and what could happen if it turns into a super El Niño:

What is El Niño?

El Niño, which means “Little Boy” in Spanish, is a natural climate event that typically occurs every two to seven years. It’s characterized by warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which disrupts normal winds and pushes warm water eastward toward the west coast of the Americas.

The warming waters impact weather across the world, causing areas in the northern U.S. and Canada to be drier and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.

If the conditions are intense, some scientists refer to the weather pattern as a ‘super’ El Niño, often when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean rise to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above average for several months. They’re the same as a standard El Niño, but are much rarer, and they have a stronger impact on the weather.

Scientists can’t say if the El Niño will be that strong at this time, but current data is showing that there’s a chance it might occur this year.

According to the Weather Channel, there have been 27 El Niños since 1950, and there have only been five super El Niños since 1950, the last one occurring in 2016.

When will El Niño arrive?

A recent update from the World Meteorological Organization said that there is an 80% chance of El Niño forming between June and August. The chances will continue increasing until at least November, when the probability reaches above 90%.

“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a statement. “The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is.”

How will it affect SC weather

If a super El Niño does develop in the next few weeks, SC residents can expect rising temperatures, more rainy days and an increased chance of flooding across the state.

According to the National Weather Service, El Niño can have additional positive and negative impacts on the Southeast’s weather:

El Niño has been linked to reductions in the Atlantic hurricane activity due to increased vertical wind shear
El Niño generally brings above average precipitation to the Southeast during the summer
Reduced risk of wildfires
Higher risk of flooding
Increased storminess across the southern U.S. increases the threat of severe weather during El Niño winters

A super El Niño will only intensify these weather impacts and make the rest of the year much wetter for SC. An intense drought has plagued the state for most of the year, so more rain might just be what SC needs. There should also hopefully be fewer hurricanes and tropical storms making landfall in the Southeast, according to forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

How to prepare for a super El Niño

Although the climate event could reduce hurricane activity and bring much-needed rain to SC, residents should still prepare for the worst of its impacts.

“El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther and cross borders with devastating speed,” Guterres said.

Potential heat waves may make temperatures unbearably hot, so residents should stock their pantry, service their AC and identify local cooling centers in their area.

With an increased risk of flooding during El Niño, residents should know what to do in case a dangerous amount of rain reaches their doorstep. Here are tips from the National Weather Service:

Stay informed of potential storms
Determine whether your home, school or work is in an area likely to flood
Assemble an emergency kit
Prepare for possible evacuation. Pack your bags and include items for your pets so you are ready to leave at a moment’s notice
Get to higher ground if you are in an area that is subject to flooding

weather-prep

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